Big Australian vaccine horse wins in the 2021 COVID-19 Melbourne Cup

Updated 2 November 2021 on the Best Cup Day ever.

Last update 8 November 2021.

First up was a big vaccine surprise win in early September at the Randwick.

That was a crowd pleaser, but sadly captain Gladys had to retire after the match with unrelated injuries.

The next race meeting early October was without much drama, at a country track:

The exact timing of the win was a bit uncertain due to a late run by the viral team on the 12th October. But a strong finish by the vaccine team made the win emphatic in the end.

Hume was the real decider.

Then came Hume, in Victoria, a close win preceded by several easy races south of the Yarra in coddled inner city Melbourne:

This was in the end a huge win for the vaccine team

But it was a tense struggle, and the early win in Moreland on October 3 was under appreciated by the news media, amidst the flurry of other tussles -- making the vaccine main players a bit nervous about the spring carnival. Almost unnoticed here, as throughout the season, was superb vaccine preparation by the  medical and political trainers.

The Bellwether in Moreland

The Coburgistan bellwether was a thoroughly reliable indicator noted at the time by the Pundit:

But Coburgistan was an easy win. There were several terribly dangerous and closely contested races out in Warnie territory, e.g. Casey in the East where the Pundit grew up, Wynyard in the West:

But what mattered was the big one at Flemington. The favourite won the big race by a length. The punters went wild (Updated 7 November):

Here are 7 day averages

With the next race being taken by hospital reductions. As they should:

Just look at those downward trends in severe disease patients residing in hospital.

The big kicker. Victoria beats New South Wales

But there an even bigger kicker to this story. Victoria hospitalisation are lower than NSW even though cases are higher:

First compare daily new case trajectories of the two states, Vics in Blue:

Vic loses to New South Wales on this metric.

But then compare hospital occupancy:

Victoria is way better than New South Wales on this front, with 25-50 percent less harm from severe disease. Even with more infections.

After the match plaudits went to Pfizer and AstraZeneca for steady defensive catching and fielding. And to testing and tracing for attacking finesse. Quarantine and border control barely got a mention.

The Washup.

The MCG match may seem too early to call for some, but it's a home game for the Pundit. Throughout the series the home crowd have been steadily buoyed up by the rolling thunder of vaccine rollout, out to 90 percent and beyond. It's like a rainstorm on a brushfire. We have the recent Portuguese and Japanese wins as testimony to this judgement.

On 29 October 79 percent of eligible Victorians were double vaccine dose protected.

Many basic freedoms were restored-- with many families from Melbourne heading to the bush for a long weekend. There will be bumps. But next week there is Cup Day, and The Oaks. There will be frocks and hats. And sparkling wine.

The Great Decoupling noted on Twitter (thanks Juliette O'B.). (27 October 2021.)

Vaccines not only prevented new infections. Vaccines have decoupled the need to go to hospital from SARS-CoV2 infection. Juliette O'Brien does a great job illustrating this: