What's the risk from COVID-19? Any takers for large scale Russian Roulette? It would be an exciting ride.

 

Pdf file of above Australian Health Report here

In previous posts the Pundit has dissected health statistics to try and understand better how dangerous COVID-19 is.

Several points emerged from these investigations.

High virus infectiousness and lack of baseline immunity mean that almost everyone in the community is at risk of infection. In the absence of vaccination everyone will catch the virus. The virus can damage lungs, and spread in the bloodstream to damage other vital organs, such as the kidneys, heart and brain.

To communicate and measure these risks is a challenge as reliable numbers require extensive surveys and testing.

But a recent Australian Government agency provides reliable numbers that may allow anyone assess their risks in terms of numbers that are understandable.

The numbers The Pundit is referring to are rates of hospitalisation once infected (which in ordinary terms real nasty sickness),  and rates of transfer to intensive care units or ICUs (which means serious, likely deadly illness unless well managed).

Table 5 below shows these numbers for different age groups for this year in Australia.

They are evidence gathered by independent health professionals in a high quality medical system. The staff are alert but not overloaded. Detection of infections is likely to be near complete, given extremely high testing rates. In short, the numbers are accurate.

Note the totals. Of 5000 SARS-CoV2 infections, 600 go to hospital, 120 to intensive care

The main message from this table for all people 50-years and over, is that once infected the chances of severe, life-threatening illness are appreciable  (1 to 2 cases in 20 infections). It's accurate to say the epidemic could decimate the older-adults if not controlled.

But for all adults over-20 years-old the chances that  COVID-19 infection will turn into a really nasty illness is a real issue to think about. 

Letting the epidemic rip with feeble public-health measures is something akin to everyone with grey hair being forced to play Russian Roulette.

The risk of hospitalisation acting over all age groups given by the TOTALS line in the table  is 12 hospital admissions per 100  infections, 2 of which will need the intense support of the ICU unit.

This reasoning doesn't factor in permanent organ damage such and brain, heart or endocrine system damage.

If these could be factored in, letting the epidemic rip probably equals lining up all adults for a modified kinder, gentler version of Russian Roulette.

Kinder and gentler roulette only because the gun is pointed away from the head, but possibly aimed at the heart or a kidney.

See also

The Bitter Pill: COVID-19 is much worse than the flu.

Collected COVID-19 risk yardsticks