The Scientific Alliance examines crop security issues in Europe.

14 June 2013 The Scientific Alliance, UK, Newsletter

Is there a crisis in farming?

According to a BBC report, things do not look too good this year for harvests in the UK: the headline reads Britain’s wheat crop ‘down by a third after extreme weather. The essential problem goes back to the exceptionally wet summer in 2012, which prevented farmers from sowing winter wheat between September and the end of the year (as well as spoiling a much of last year’s crop and making a significant proportion of the potato crop impossible to harvest). Over-wintered cereals and oilseed rape play a major part in temperate northern Europe agriculture and give consistently higher yields than varieties sown in the spring.

Even where winter crops are now not too far from being harvestable, bare patches in some fields are clear evidence of water-logging over the winter. Since the UK was not alone in suffering an atrociously wet summer in 2012, reduced harvests might be expected in some other parts of northern Europe. This year’s cold spring will not have helped either, and another report blames weather for exceptionally high losses of honeybees: Honey bee losses double in a year due to poor winter.

The loss of the effective and widely-used neonicotinoid insecticides from next season because of the recently-announced temporary EU ban will make no difference to such natural challenges. It is very likely, however, that farmers will grow less oilseed rape next year and, since that crop produces large amounts of pollen and nectar, some bees will find life more rather than less difficult.

But it is not all a picture of gloom and doom. Although northern Europe looks set for a poor harvest, Bloomberg reports World Wheat Harvest Seen at Record High on Europe and Black Sea, based on projections from the Agricultural Market Information System (http://www.amis-outlook.org/, a G20 initiative). Unlike 2008, when a series of poor harvests in both hemispheres pushed world grain stocks down to just a few weeks’ supply, the situation in our neck of the woods fortunately looks likely to make only a very modest negative impact on the overall total.

So, the global agriculture system seems to be far from a crisis, but that does not mean we should be complacent. As has been pointed out countless times, overall food demand will grow even more rapidly than population (set to increase by over a quarter by 2050) as both prosperity and meat consumption grow. While there is a sufficiency of food for now, this is not assured over the next few decades as farmers have to increase average yields per hectare unless we are to see even more natural habitat and marginal land put under the plough.

Two key aspects of the issue, particularly relevant to developing countries where population growth is concentrated and the rate of increase in food demand highest, are post-harvest storage and infrastructure. If crops can be protected from pests and spoilage and roads and communications can be improved to allow trading with neighbours, nationally and internationally, that makes better use of what farmers can grow. But productivity still needs to increase, particularly in these countries.

Part of the equation is to make sure the best crop management techniques from developed countries  can be used more widely. Sufficient fertilizer, modern pesticides and efficient irrigation could together transform the productivity of many farms in Africa, Asia and Latin America. But that is only the first step.

Although farming has been steeped in tradition (and still is, in many instances), farmers through the ages have in fact been constantly innovative. Cultivating and managing crops was itself arguably the key development which enabled the evolution of today’s complex societies. From then on, farmers have experimented with different varieties and different ways of managing them to find what works best for them.

This has built up a body of what is often referred to as ‘traditional knowledge’. This is, of course, very important, but does not need to be set in stone and regarded with reverence, as some environmentalists and aid groups would have us do. It should rather be seen as a firm foundation on which further improvements can be built. Family farms in East Anglia may be using all the latest technology, but the farmers themselves still know and understand every detail of the soil, drainage and other factors which affect their fields.

The ready acceptance of GM crops by small-scale farmers in India, China, South Africa and elsewhere is testimony to the desire to improve yields, income and living standards. Genetic modification is not a magic bullet, but is the most important new tool which agriculture has seen in the last twenty or more years. It has the capacity to help with some of the major ongoing challenges faced by farmers everywhere, particularly in developing countries. Drought tolerance and, in the longer term, nitrogen fixation, could be important parts of a jigsaw of developments which will help build a more secure and prosperous future.

How ironic, then, that the debate about GM crops continues to rumble in Europe, home of many of the world’s most productive and innovative farmers. Rather than rely on years of positive advice from independent scientists, some politicians have bowed to activist pressure and continue to oppose new applications routinely without even considering the evidence. Fortunately, a number of British politicians have recently begun to speak in support of crop biotechnology (see, for example, this from the Times about remarks by the Science Minister: Europe must back GM or be and old-tech museum, Willetts warns).

The German government is reported to be sympathetic to joining the UK and other countries in pushing for a more rational and open policy on GM crops. This is not before time. There may not be a crisis in farming just yet, but holding back productive new technologies could help create one. 


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