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Sunday, May 10, 2020

Excess US deaths in COVID19 epidemic are at least 20-fold that of a serious flu season -- and hit the 45-54 year-old generations hard too

Post title corrected to reflect COVID19 being at least 20 fold flu mortality based on Sept 13 update mentioned at end of this updated post.

It's not over yet, and winter is coming.

The latest US national statistics for excess deaths above the expectation numbers per week:
Excess at 2018 peak was +4.16 percent above threshold. Excess in 2020 peak is +36.8 percent.
This indicates there is about 9-fold more excess deaths at 2020 peak compared to 2018.


Update. Using CDC excess death estimates and US COVID-19 diagnosed death counts, reported at Our World in Data as cumulative totals, shows Coronavirus deaths are being under reported by a factor of 1.47-fold ( 47 percent underestimate.

See below for calculation by D Tribe.


Further 13 Sept Update. By September its much worse.


23 September 2020 Update. Not just aged-care residents killed (h/t Epsilon)


See later post





4 comments:

  1. Corona Virus is spread everywhere throughout the world. If it's not too much trouble make a point to keep up social removing on the off chance that you are going out for any reason. wash hands don't contact your mouth with your hands..keep the cover on your face.and make a point to keep your hands in pocket.

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  2. How do you distinguish the deaths caused by COVID-19 against the deaths caused by the fear of COVID-19 and the delay or lack of health care for people with stroke, heart attack, terminal patients at home, etc.???

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Those extra deaths include many that are caused by Coronavirus but not detected or diagnosed. We need more data to make distinctions

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