The lagging death surge files. It's not flu deja vu.

Abundant evidence from real death counts that dangers of Coronavirus are not exaggerated.

From the New York Times.

USA now past their first COVID-19 death peak. Note how even with extreme physical isolation measures the death peak exceeds flu peak by a wide margin

In Lombardy , the capacity to greatly exceed the seasonal flu epidemic is even more obvious from the weekly death statistics,

(Influenza data at the end)

From the Financial Times

From The Economist

From The Economist-Tracking excess deaths in different countries

El Pais --Spain:

France:

Spain:

There’s Been a Spike in People Dying at Home in Several Cities. That Suggests Coronavirus Deaths Are Higher Than Reported Propublica 14 April 2020

The Economist 4th April 2020 (posted previously)
Fatal flaws
Covid-19’s death toll appears higher than official figures suggest. Measuring the total number of deaths tells a grimmer tale

Heading for 100k:

Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis

 View ORCID ProfileChirag Modi, Vanessa Boehm, Simone Ferraro, George Stein, Uros Seljak

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074

This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

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Abstract

We perform a counterfactual time series analysis using two different Data Science methods applied to 2020 mortality data reported from towns in Italy, with data from the previous five years as control. We find an excess mortality that is correlated in time with the COVID-19 reported death rate time series. Our analysis shows good agreement with reported COVID-19 mortality for age

Influenza death estimates.

A work in progress.

See also GMO Pundit's Coronavirus index for more complete information