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Tuesday, March 24, 2020

What shows there is hope?: An Epidemic curve that is abating. In Italia

Italy provides this graph just below to inform the public (see pdf for full details.). A follow up graph confirms hopeful news. All countries deserve this transparent communication to provide citizens hope in difficult times. (see https://www.epicentro.iss.it/ )


The deep blue bars show the Italians are (likely) succeeding. They show the way. Another week may confirm they are past the worst.
Vinceremo!

Pavarotti rules OK!
  • Update: 12 April data. Reliable evidence new case numbers per day are currently falling. All indications from 23 March remain preserved in the updated data. Clearly we now know that Italy passed the peak of the surge on 17 March. Hallelujah!

Update 20 April.
Sadly, it is a long road back to the end of the epidemic in Italy.


See also previous post: The end of the beginning

Note Bene. This Quote from the Official Italian site, google translated.

With the order of n. 640 of 27 February 2020, the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), since 28 February, coordinates a surveillance system that integrates the microbiological and epidemiological data provided by the Regions and Autonomous Provinces (PA) and by the national reference laboratory on an individual level for SARS-CoV-2 of the ISS.

Every day a dedicated infographic is produced which reports - with graphs, maps and tables - a description of the spread over time and space of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and a description of the characteristics of the affected people (the infographic is also available in English). A bulletin is also published every Tuesday and Friday which, in a more extensive way, deepens the information collected.

Attention: It is emphasized that the data collected is in a continuous phase of consolidation and, as foreseeable in an emergency situation, some information may be incomplete or may be subject to change overnight. Furthermore, especially in the Regions / PAs where a sustained local transmission of the virus is occurring, there is the possibility of a delay of a few days between the time of the execution of the buffer for diagnosis and reporting on the dedicated platform.

  • 27 March. News outlets are announcing continued "surges in rates in Italy" -- eg Bloomberg below. There is no increase in rates above the peak in the data accompanying them.
  • Their description is grievous misinformation.
Bloomberg Graph 27 March 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/italy-virus-cases-rise-fueled-by-infections-in-lombardy-region





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