The single most important COVID metric at the moment: The deceleration detector -- cases per day plot

National - new cases each day (non-cumulative)
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From the marvellous https://www.covid19data.com.au/

• The number trends suggest physical isolation is working in the wonderful land of Oz. 

Other Asian countries have done better:

This is al wonderful news about Australia but several causes are in play, and we have to remain vigilent. Virology down under provides a good discussion of what it could mean.

• The NSW breakup of 17 April also important for telling us to avoid being overconfident and is giving clues as to what drives the epidemic, namely a surge of returing infected travellers in the early stages:

It does imply that the observed abatement so far is linked to tracing and testing of imported cases, and  that containment of community spread, let alone reduction, is yet to be measured and contained. But it suggests we may learn over the next week about this

Peter Collignon makes similar points with clearer graphs:

Peter cautions that the last two days may be under reported due to communication lags.

The chart below is also reassuring. It shows current case fatalities are relatively low as a fraction of resolved cases, but there is a backlog of unresolved cases, so this metric may rise further as we progress through the epidemic.

At 8 April 2020 the resolved detected case fatality ratio was 1.74 percent suggesting only moderate numbers of pre- and asymptomatic cases.

(For world wide views, Statnews do a good job.  so do Quillette, see also Our World in Data

• GMO Pundit's collected Coronavirus resources.)

Health status of people in Australia with COVID-19
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