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Thursday, July 04, 2019

This new Twitter account skewers our misunderstanding of absolute risk

Madeline Bender on Tweep @justsysrisks , over at Massive Science:
A new cancer drug reduces incidence of the disease by 50%.” Sounds great, right? But a closer look reveals that the drug reduced cancer from just 2 people in 1,000 to 1. Fifty percent, sure, but nothing to call home about.
This is the distinction between relative risk and absolute risk that a new Twitter account is drawing attention to. Much like its viral counterpart@justsaysinmice, RelativelyRisky points out the fine print in scientific studies beyond the attention-grabbing headlines that the research sometimes inspires. Relative risk is a comparison — how much more risk of a bad outcome one group bears compared to another — while absolute risk is this just measure for one group...

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