CLAIM: In nature no individual variation represents a large share of the sum of the variations. Natural boundaries prevent cascading effects from propagating globally.Cited evidence: Nil. Un-cited Counter-evidence: Influenza outbreaks and viruses in general. Migrating species of pests. Seals bringing TB to the Americas. Hybrids between species.
CLAIM: The method of analysis misses both the statistical significance of nature and the fact that it is not necessary to believe in the perfection of nature, or in its "benign" attributes, but rather in its track record, its sheer statistical power as a risk evaluator and as a risk manager in avoiding ruin.Cited evidence: Nil. Un-cited Counter-evidence: Species extinctions. The evolution of Oxygen in photosynthesis.
Not examined at all by Taleb and colleagues as a potential cause of catastrophic ruin: Application of the Precautionary Principle to GMOs.
@ pp2.pdf - Google Drive:
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