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The case that the “triumph narrative” of Bt cotton in India comes mainly from economists and the biotech industry and their academic allies is a difficult one to sustain when dozens of studies show the positive effects of insect resistance in Bt cotton. Yields are driven by numerous factors, and there will be variance, field-to-field, season-to-season. Despite this, Bt cotton has been agro-economically successful because of the lower cost of production per unit and thus higher net returns, which is testified to by the near universal adoption of Bt technology by farmers
Key Quote
Concluding Facts
Stone’s initial objective was to destabilise the broad consensus in peer-reviewed literature that he characterises as a triumph narrative. Yet his mechanisms are unproven and implausible – the conspiracy is too grand, the actors too diverse. He himself contradicts this initial claim with a conclusion consonant with the peer-reviewed literature he attacks. In assessing the “isolated impact” of Bt’s effects on cotton yields, he concludes, “Kathage and Qaim’s (2012) multi-village fixed-effects study gives us the number 24%; Stone’s (2011) multi-village before-and-after analysis gives us 18%; and Gruère and Sun’s (2012) trend analysis gives us 19%” (2012: 68).
That is a tight range and impressive level of measured contributions to yield increases, especially for an agricultural innovation with a single trait; it is also consistent with the behaviour of farmers...
Literature of debate:
Stone, Glenn Davis (2012): “Constructing Facts: Bt Cotton Narratives in India”, Economic & Political Weekly, Vol 47, No 38.
A group of researchers and industry writers have constructed a narrative of technological triumph for Bt cotton in India, based on an empirical record of superior performance compared to conventional seed. Counterclaims of Bt cotton failure are attributed to mutually reinforcing interactions among non-governmental organisations which avoid rigorous comparisons. However, researchers and the biotechnology industry are also engaged in a similar authentication loop for generating, validating, and publicising such facts. With Bt cotton, the convention of routinely ignoring the effects of selection bias and cultivation bias benefits researchers, journals and the industry, but keeps us from drawing meaningful conclusions about the relative performance of the technology. But as poor as the case for isolating the technology impact of Bt cotton in India has been, it is useful in helping us understand the social conventions for creating one's "own facts".
Gruère, Guillaume P and Yan Sun (2012): “Measuring the Contribution of Bt Cotton Adoption to India’s Cotton Yields Leap”, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Discussion Paper 01170. Retrieved on 27 August 2012,
While a number of empirical studies have demonstrated the role of Bt cotton adoption in increasing Indian cotton productivity at the farm level, there has been questioning around the overall contribution of Bt cotton to the average cotton yield increase observed these last ten years in India. This study examines the contribution of Bt cotton adoption to long- term average cotton yields in India using a panel data analysis of production variables in nine Indian cotton-producing states from 1975 to 2009. The results show that Bt cotton contributed 19 percent of total yield growth over time, or between 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent per percentage adoption every year since its introduction. Besides Bt cotton, the use of fertilizer and the increased adoption of hybrid seeds appear to have contributed to the yield increase over time. However, if official Bt cotton adoption contributed to increased yield after 2005, unofficial Bt cotton might also have been part of the observed increase of yields starting in 2002, the year of its official introduction in India.
Kathage, Jonas and Matin Qaim (2012): “Economic Impacts and Impact Dynamics of Bt (Bacillus Thuringiensis) Cotton in India”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (29), pp 11652-656.
Despite widespread adoption of genetically modified crops in many countries, heated controversies about their advantages and disadvantages continue. Especially for developing countries, there are concerns that genetically modified crops fail to benefit smallholder farmers and contribute to social and economic hardship. Many economic studies contradict this view, but most of them look at short-term impacts only, so that uncertainty about longer-term effects prevails. We address this shortcoming by analyzing economic impacts and impact dynamics of Bt cotton in India. Building on unique panel data collected between 2002 and 2008, and controlling for nonrandom selection bias in technology adoption, we show that Bt has caused a 24% increase in cotton yield per acre through reduced pest damage and a 50% gain in cotton profit among smallholders. These benefits are stable; there are even indications that they have increased over time. We further show that Bt cotton adoption has raised consumption expenditures, a common measure of household living standard, by 18% during the 2006-2008 period. We conclude that Bt cotton has created large and sustainable benefits, which contribute to positive economic and social development in India.
Stone, Glenn Davis (2011): “Field versus Farm in Warangal: Bt Cotton, Higher Yields, and Larger Questions”, World Development, 39 (3), pp 387-98.
A longitudinal anthropological study of cotton farming in Warangal District of Andhra Pradesh, India, compares a group of villages before and after adoption of Bt cotton. It distinguishes “field-level” and “farm-level” impacts. During this five-year period yields rose by 18% overall, with greater increases among poor farmers with the least access to information. Insecticide sprayings dropped by 55%, although predation by non-target pests was rising. However shifting from the field to the historically-situated context of the farm recasts insect attacks as a symptom of larger problems in agricultural decision-making. Bt cotton’s opponents have failed to recognize real benefits at the field level, while its backers have failed to recognize systemic problems that Bt cotton may exacerbate.
Gruère G, Sengupta D. Bt cotton and farmer suicides in India: an evidence-based assessment. J Dev Stud. 2011;47(2):316-37. doi: 10.1080/00220388.2010.492863.
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington.
Bt cotton is accused of being responsible for an increase of farmer suicides in India. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of evidence on Bt cotton and farmer suicides. Available data show no evidence of a 'resurgence' of farmer suicides. Moreover, Bt cotton technology has been very effective overall in India. Nevertheless, in specific districts and years, Bt cotton may have indirectly contributed to farmer indebtedness, leading to suicides, but its failure was mainly the result of the context or environment in which it was planted.
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