Alison Gopnik at Slate on how we think:
Bayesian inference depends on the balance between “priors,” the beliefs we bring to a problem, and data. As we get older our “priors,” rationally enough, get stronger and stronger. We rely more on what we already know, or think we know, and less on new data. In some studies we’re doing in my lab now, my colleagues and I found that the very fact that children know less makes them able to learn more. We gave 4-year-olds and adults evidence about a toy that worked in an unusual way. The correct hypothesis about the toy had a low “prior” but was strongly supported by the data. The 4-year-olds were actually more likely to figure out the toy than the adults were.
As adults, the strength of our pre-existing beliefs, whether they involve the iniquities of Rasmussen or the malice of the MSM, may make those beliefs impervious to data. People often complain about the childishness of American politics. But maybe a bit more real childishness would be a good idea.
@ How do children learn so quickly? Bayesian statistics and probabilities help Nate Silver and kids. - Slate Magazine:
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