Saturday, January 08, 2022

Strap in folks. Sydney's about half-way in the ride to peak prevalence in the Omicron wave.

 Prevalence of COVID-19 in London recently reached 9 percent of the population

A Twitter thread shows than Omicron variant may peak in prevalence  near 8 percent of all people in a big city.

What's this mean for Australia:

By comparison at 8 Jan 2022 has NSW at 268,021 active cases, which corresponds to a COVID-19 prevalence of  about 3.2 percent.

It seems, by comparison with London, we in the big cities of Oz are about half-way to peak Omicron. Hopefully it's a short and not too bumpy ride.

10 Jan 2022. Update

 Matt Hopcraft on Twitter gives the following prevalence's which the Pundit accepts as near correct:

They suggest that -- by taking London as a model-- New South Wales and Victoria infections will peak together, and we are now 2/3rds way to the peak of new infections. (6 percent: 9 percent prevalence at peak.)

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